Projection of family life courses of the descendants of immigrants in England and Wales using microsimulation

BACKGROUNDThis study projects family life courses of the descendants of immigrants in England and Wales using microsimulation.While previous projections have estimated the size of ethnic groups, this is the first study to examine how the family and age structures of the descendants of immigrants evolve across generations and over time. OBJECTIVEOur aim is to explore how the future age, partnership, and parity distributions of immigrant descendant populations develop in the United Kingdom. METHODSWe develop a microsimulation model of fertility and partnership transitions from ages 20-49, using partnership formation, dissolution, and fertility rates from previous research.We construct a base population using data from the 2011 Census. RESULTSThe results show, first, significant heterogeneity in partnership and fertility patterns among migrant populations.Second, this heterogeneity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, especially for fertility levels.Third, the distribution of the descendants of immigrants by partnership and parity gradually becomes similar to that of the native population.