Traceability technologies and smallholder farm gate prices and export readiness in Sub Saharan African agri food chains an exploratory systematic review and meta analysis

Across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT), QR codes, and mobile-based traceability technologies are promoted as transformative solutions to reconcile smallholder inclusion with stringent export market demands. After a decade of pilots, a fundamental paradox persists: strong technological optimism coexists with weak evidence of farm-gate price effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis quantified the pooled association between traceability technology adoption and smallholder farm-gate prices and export readiness. The study tested whether technology type or institutional organisation moderated these effects. Scopus, Web of Science, CAB Abstracts, and AgEcon Search were systematically searched for the period 2015–2025. Forty-one eligible studies were identified. Thirty-four studies reported farm-gate price outcomes, and 23 studies reported export compliance outcomes. Random-effects meta-analysis, mixed-effects meta-regression, and publication bias diagnostics (Egger’s test, trim-and-fill, small-study meta-regression) were employed. Effect sizes were reported as Hedges’ *g* and interpreted using Cohen’s [18] conventions. Traceability adoption was associated with a small-to-moderate positive effect on farm-gate prices (pooled *g* = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.24–0.52; I 2 = 82.4%; k = 34) and a 2.48-fold increase in export compliance odds (95% CI: 1.86–3.32; I 2 = 67.3%; k = 23). Technology type did not predict effect size. Blockchain (*g* = 0.29), IoT (*g* = 0.52; k = 4, provisional), and QR codes (*g* = 0.21) showed no statistically significant difference from basic digital tools (*g* = 0.44) after controlling for institutional context. Cooperative organisation dominated as the effect modifier. Cooperative members achieved a moderate-to-large effect (*g* = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.38–0.68), nearly three times that of individual farmers (*g* = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02–0.36). Exporter-controlled traceability systems were associated with significantly lower farm-gate price benefits (β = − 0.18; p = 0.027). Publication bias was present (Egger’s intercept = 1.84; p = 0.008). The bias-corrected effect remained a small positive (*g* = 0.31; 95% CI: 0.17–0.45). The evidence base was predominantly pilot-scale (80.5% of studies <1000 farmers) and geographically concentrated (Kenya 34.1%, Ghana 14.6%, Nigeria 12.2%). Traceability technologies generated genuine but modest farm-gate price benefits. These benefits were not intrinsic to any technology. Blockchain conferred no advantage over basic.