Lithium supply capacity can meet most projected demand through 2035

Lithium demand is expected to increase substantially owing to the growing use of batteries for transport and stationary energy storage. Concerns about future shortages persist because lithium supply is currently concentrated in a limited number of regions and viable substitutes remain scarce. Here we show that global lithium supply is likely to meet or exceed demand through 2035 in all but the highest demand scenario. Supply is also projected to become less geographically concentrated over time, suggesting reduced producer influence and lower geopolitical supply risks. When foreign investments in mining projects are considered, major lithium-consuming regions are projected to secure sufficient supply to satisfy domestic demand under low and medium demand scenarios. Overall, our findings indicate that lithium is likely to become less critical despite rising demand. These conclusions are based on a global bottom-up assessment of 149 planned lithium extraction projects and the evaluation of low-, medium- and high-demand scenarios through 2035.