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This research aims to analyze lithium supply-demand dynamics and identify sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China.

March 15, 2026SustainabilityOpen Access

The Supply–Demand Dynamics of Lithium Resources and Sustainable Pathways for Vehicle Electrification in China

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This research aims to analyze lithium supply-demand dynamics and identify sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China.
Developed a lithium forecast framework using System Dynamics and Material Flow Analysis.
Conducted a multi-level sensitivity analysis to evaluate uncertainties in socio-technical assumptions.
Validated model against historical data to ensure robustness.
Projected 8.3 times increase in China's EV stocks and 4.7 times rise in annual lithium demand by 2035.
Cumulative lithium demand may deplete 50-71% of domestic lithium reserves by 2035.
Identified interventions to reduce primary lithium demand by up to 18.9% through enhanced energy density and battery lifespan.
Optimizing closed-loop recycling could reduce supply-demand gap by 31-39%.

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Analysis demonstrates China's lithium demand will surge with EV expansion, suggesting critical steps for sustainability.

Song et al. (2026) studied this question.

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