Navigating critical metal challenges for stationary energy storage in China: contributions of recycling and technological substitution through 2050

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are essential for renewable energy integration, but their rapid deployment may intensify critical metal supply risks. This study combines a Gompertz growth model with dynamic material flow analysis to project lithium, cobalt, nickel, and vanadium demand in China’s BESS sector from 2025 to 2050 under ten scenarios integrating energy-transition pathways, technology substitution, and application-specific preferences. By 2050, cumulative demand is projected to reach 223-535 kt for lithium, 46-203 kt for cobalt, and 386-1689 kt for nickel, while annual vanadium demand reaches 41-269 kt across scenarios. More ambitious decarbonization pathways substantially increase resource pressure. Technology substitution reduces reliance on lithium, cobalt, and nickel but shifts part of the pressure toward vanadium. Cobalt exhibits relative scarcity across all scenarios, whereas vanadium scarcity is highly sensitive to technology mix and transition pathway; lithium and nickel are not directly constrained by resource scarcity but face rapidly increasing demand pressure. Under the medium recycling scenario, recovered metals can meet 55-63% of annual demand by 2050, although recycling provides limited near-term mitigation because of the lag between deployment and retirement. Second-life utilization provides earlier mitigation, reducing cumulative primary demand by 21-107 kt for lithium, 19-89 kt for cobalt, and 154-727 kt for nickel during 2025-2050. These findings indicate that future resource risks in China’s BESS sector will be shaped not only by deployment scale, but also by technology choice and application structure, underscoring the need to align storage planning with resource security strategies.