Prioritization of Watershed Restoration Areas Using Hydrologic, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Criteria: Model Development and Field Validation

The selection of restoration areas in large river basins is a technical and socioeconomic challenge due to the environmental and socioeconomic complexities involved, particularly in data-scarce tropical basins. To address this challenge, multi-criteria models (MCMs) and multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDAs), coupled with GIS, are used by managers and decision-makers as integrated and objective prioritization alternatives. In the present study, an MCM was developed integrating hydrological, environmental (runoff, sediment yield, and degraded lands), and socioeconomic (stakeholder prioritization) variables to screen priority restoration areas in the Urucuia Basin, a large watershed in the Brazilian savanna, leading to the final selection of 2000 hectares for the Urucuia’s Proaguas Project. Runoff and erosion were estimated using the calibrated InVEST Seasonal Water Yield (SWY) and Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) models, respectively. Integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and supported by off-the-shelf watershed data, the MCM identified 31,455 hectares of priority areas, spanning all basin landscapes. These areas were validated by ground-truthing and by a corresponding confusion matrix, as well as by a validation workshop with local stakeholders. The prioritization map had an accuracy of 90% and was consistent with local stakeholder knowledge and preferences. The method could be applied to similar basins after appropriate calibration and validation.