Economic policy, policy reversal and household welfare in Nigeria's Fourth Republic, 1999 - 2026: an administration-by-administration assessment of growth, inflation, manufacturing and political freedoms

Nigeria returned to civilian rule in May 1999. Since then, five administrations have pursued distinct economic policy regimes, yet living standards for many households have deteriorated in the past decade. This article assesses the economic policies of the Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu administrations and their implications for the average Nigerian. Using a historical-institutional design and secondary data from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Debt Management Office, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria and Freedom House, it traces growth, income per head, inflation, poverty, manufacturing, public debt and political freedoms from 1999 to 2026. Real GDP growth averaged 7.7% a year in 2000–2007, 7.4% in 2008–2009 and 6.1% in 2010–2014, but only 0.6% in 2015–2022, when real GDP per capita fell by an average of 1.6% a year. Real income per head peaked at US$2,586 (constant 2015 dollars) in 2015 and fell to US$2,281 in 2023, a decline of about 12%. Poverty rose from 40.1% in 2018 to an estimated 56.0% in 2024. The 2023 removal of the petrol subsidy and unification of the exchange rate pushed headline inflation to 34.8% in December 2024 before it eased to 14.6% in September 2026 on a rebased index. Manufacturers reported 767 closures in 2023, and Nigeria’s Freedom House score declined from 50 to 44 between the 2017 and 2026 editions. The evidence suggests that policy reversals, poor sequencing and weak institutionalization, rather than an absence of plans, account for much of the welfare loss. A five-pillar institutionalization model aligned with SDGs 1, 8, 9 and 16 is proposed.