Multi-hazard climate hazard exposure and livestock vulnerability in Nepal: a district-level spatial risk assessment

Livestock-dependent livelihoods across Nepal face escalating multi-hazard climate exposure yet remain absent from national risk assessments and early warning frameworks. This study presents the district-level spatial assessment integrating biophysical hazard exposure with livestock-specific social vulnerability across all 77 administrative districts using a 2000–2023 baseline. We construct a five-hazard Multi-Hazard Exposure Index (MHEI: flood, drought, landslide, low temperature exposure frequency, high temperature exposure frequency) and a four-dimension Livestock Vulnerability Index (LVI: livestock dependence, poverty, veterinary access, social marginalization), classify districts through bivariate spatial overlay, and assess geographic clustering using Global Moran’s I . Compound risk is concentrated in 37 districts (48%), forming a statistically significant spatial cluster (Moran’s I = 0.41, E [ I ] = −0.013, z = 4.87, p < 0.001) across Sudurpashchim and mid-western hills, with Achham, Doti, Bajura, Bajhang, and Pyuthan as highest-priority districts. Absolute hazard intensity and compound risk are spatially uncoupled: highest MHEI values occur in central-western mountain districts, while highest compound risk emerges where moderate hazard intersects deep structural vulnerability in the far west. Composite risk scores show significant directional agreement with recorded livestock losses from Nepal’s BIPAD portal (Spearman’s ρ = 0.239, p = 0.037), providing empirical corroboration of the framework.