E-commerce development and rural dietary quality in China: spatial spillovers and nonlinear associations

Purpose Rural e-commerce is expanding rapidly in China; yet, its implications for dietary quality remain insufficiently understood. Existing studies mainly rely on micro-level data, while systematic regional evidence is scarce because comparable dietary data at finer spatial scales are difficult to obtain. This study examines the association between provincial e-commerce development and rural dietary quality in China, quantifying spatial spillovers and identifying conditional variations across regions. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data for 31 provinces from 2015 to 2021, this study constructs a rural dietary quality distance (RDQD) index based on the Chinese Dietary Guidelines and the Diet Balance Index. Spatial Durbin models with alternative spatial weight matrices (contiguity, inverse distance and gravity) are employed to estimate local and spillover associations. Moderation and threshold models are further used to assess nonlinear roles of rural digital access, consumption level and income level, together with regional and post-COVID heterogeneity. Findings E-commerce development is associated with lower RDQD locally and, on average, with positive spillovers to neighboring provinces. These associations are highly uneven: improvements are strongest in western and non-grain-producing regions, whereas major grain-producing regions show worsening dietary quality. Digital access, consumption and income levels moderate the e-commerce–diet relationship in an inverted-U-shaped pattern, with marginal benefits attenuating beyond identified thresholds. Positive associations persist after COVID-19 but weaken over time. Research limitations/implications This study is based on provincial-level panel data and therefore captures average regional patterns rather than household-level behavioral mechanisms. The province-level approach is intended to complement, not replace, existing micro-level studies. In addition, the e-commerce indicator reflects overall transaction dynamics and does not isolate food-related or fresh-food e-commerce. Future research could combine finer spatial data, household surveys and more disaggregated e-commerce indicators to strengthen causal identification and improve understanding of the mechanisms linking digital market development to dietary quality. Social implications By improving access to diverse foods, e-commerce has the potential to support healthier diets in rural China, but its benefits are unevenly distributed. Regions with weak digital access, lower incomes or limited food distribution capacity may not benefit equally and can even experience worsening dietary outcomes. The study therefore highlights the importance of inclusive digital development so that rural households are not excluded from healthier food environments as online food purchasing becomes more widespread. Originality/value This study develops a province-level indicator of rural dietary quality and provides regional evidence on how rural e-commerce is associated with dietary quality through both local and spatial channels in China. It complements the existing micro-level literature by identifying broad spatial patterns, regional heterogeneity and nonlinear enabling conditions. The paper also adds value by linking digital market integration to diet quality within a large developing economy undergoing rapid rural digital transformation.