Crop rotation adoption and farm performance under contrasting institutional settings in Central Asia: evidence from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Purpose Cotton monoculture, inherited from the Soviet production system, has contributed to land degradation in irrigated areas of Central Asia. Crop rotation can improve soil quality and farm performance. This study examines the factors associated with crop rotation adoption among cotton farmers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and assesses its association with cotton yields and revenue. Design/methodology/approach The study uses cross-sectional survey data collected in 2019 from 592 cotton-growing farms in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. An endogenous switching regression model is applied to account for potential selection bias in adoption decisions and to estimate differences in productivity and revenue outcomes between adopters and non-adopters under contrasting institutional settings. Findings The results show that the drivers and outcomes of crop rotation adoption differ between the two countries. In Kazakhstan, adoption is positively associated with farmer's age, training participation, perceived irrigation canal conditions, and a higher local share of adopters. In Uzbekistan, adoption is more likely among farmers facing credit constraints and those perceiving stronger land tenure security. Crop rotation is associated with higher cotton yields and gross revenue in Uzbekistan, whereas the opposite pattern is observed in Kazakhstan. Research limitations/implications The study is based on cross-sectional data from 2019, limiting the ability to capture long-term yield effects of crop rotation. The endogenous switching regression approach relies on the validity of the exclusion restriction and parametric assumptions, so results reflect selection-corrected associations and not causal effects. Additionally, crop rotation is captured as a binary indicator, and the survey does not identify the specific crops in the rotation sequence, limiting the depth of agronomic inference. Originality/value The study provides comparative evidence on crop rotation adoption and farm performance under contrasting institutional conditions in two Central Asian cotton farming systems. It contributes to the literature on sustainable agricultural practices by showing that both adoption incentives and associated economic outcomes depend on the broader institutional environment.