Electrifying Maluku by 2030

Maluku Province holds 0.27% of Indonesia’s electricity generation and 0.41% of its installed capacity, but is largely disconnected from the main grids with 98 isolated island systems. The fleets consist of 99% diesel and gas, access of 97.59% against a national 99.78%. This study applies OnSSET, an open-source geospatial least-cost model, to ask what technology mix would connect every household in Maluku by 2030 at lowest cost, and whether national-scale build-rate limits drawn from the 2025–34 RUPTL change that answer. Findings show that off-grid solar is least-cost in all scenarios. The modelling shows that all 213,042 new connections required by 2030 are met by stand-alone PV or PV mini-grids, and grid extension is selected in no settlement. The model implements national electricity business plan (RUPTL) constraints which are set at 780,000 connections and 47 GW a year, evidently unlimited connections. The total cost for whole new connections is approximately USD 457 million for 96.5 MW of capacity, about USD 2,150 per connection. Results of the modelling show three recommendations. First, position PV-hybrid mini-grids as the default solution for unserved island communities, since main grid connection is economically unfeasible. Second, coordinate new mini-grid deployment with PLN’s diesel-to-solar conversion programme to leverage shared supply chains and reduce implementation costs as part of Indonesia’s 100 GWp solar rollout plan. Third, tailor deployment targets to Maluku’s specific delivery constraints, particularly logistics, workforce availability, and access to finance, rather than relying on national build-rate assumptions that may not reflect local realities.