Secondary Sanctions and Economic Vulnerability in Third Countries: Trade, Finance, and Compliance Channels

This article compares the exposure of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia to the risks of secondary sanctions under Western sanctions on Russia after 2022. Exposure is assessed across trade, finance and compliance channels using a simplified index of nine indicators; cases without information are coded separately, and results are reported as lower and upper bounds. Kyrgyzstan ranks first or joint-first under every variant of the calculation, while the ordering of the other countries depends on methodological choices. For Uzbekistan, the main risk lies in its dependence on remittances and the vulnerability of payment channels.