Optimising resource management in data-scarce environments: A modelling approach for Greater Cairo

Pressing environmental challenges present significant obstacles to cities’ sustainable development and underscore the need for effective resource management. However, resource management studies often overlook or oversimplify the spatial and social dimensions of resource use, limiting their ability to target interventions to specific population groups and integrate them into urban planning. Addressing this requires disaggregated data that capture spatial variation and interdependencies between socio-economic factors and resource consumption. Yet such data are often scarce in Global South contexts, where data limitations frequently hinder meaningful resource management research. This research develops a hybrid multi-scale analysis framework that integrates Spatial Microsimulation, Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), and Geodemographic Classification to help researchers address data limitations and generate policy-relevant insights. The framework offers three contributions: methodological, empirical, and policy translation. The research provides the first systematic, household-level analysis of food-water-energy consumption patterns across Greater Cairo. Spatial microsimulation creates robust synthetic household datasets by integrating multiple surveys, while MGWR reveals spatially varying drivers of consumption. The geodemographic classification delivers the first empirically grounded typology of Greater Cairo households based on demographic, socio-economic, and consumption characteristics. Lastly, the applied probability-based allocation of clusters to neighbourhoods offers an indicative tool for exploring differentiated tariff structures and area-specific demand management, validated through expert workshops. By addressing Greater Cairo’s data limitations, the framework offers a replicable approach for other cities facing similar constraints, supporting the transition to evidence-based, spatially differentiated resource management in the Global South.