This paper studies whether base-rate decisions of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) move stock prices on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. Using all 89 NBK decisions from 2016 to 2026 and a market-model event study, I measure abnormal returns for the KASE Index, Halyk Bank, Kaspi.kz and KazMunayGas. Event day 0 accounts for the announcement time of each decision. The KASE Index shows no significant reaction to hikes, cuts or holds. Only Kaspi.kz falls after rate hikes (−2.4% over two days, p = 0.024), and this result is fragile across robustness checks. Analyst surprises do not explain returns. The upload includes the paper (PDF), the Python code and the decision dataset.
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Shamil Bekmukhanov (2026) studied this question.
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