IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 37.3% (+5.1pp, n=871) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 6-confirmation filter would have rejected all three currently open/rejected trades (USDCHF LONG at 0.81152, EURJPY SHORT, AUDUSD LONG) — all of which are still unresolved and thus cannot be counted as wins yet. Among the seven closed trades, none would have been filtered (all had ≥6 confirmations at entry), so the historical win rate in this window remains 4W/3L (57.1%) — unchanged. The +5.1pp backtest gain is not visible here because the filter only removes early-entry trades, and in this small sample the rejected trades are not yet resolved; if they eventually lose, the live delta could be positive, but if they win, the filter would have cost you. Net PnL delta over this window is indeterminate until those three positions close. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a ≥6 confirmat Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: