Individual Differences in Predicting At-Risk for Mathematical Learning Difficulties in South African School Beginners / Diferencias individuales en la predicción del riesgo de dificultades de aprendizaje matemático en los alumnos que inician su escolarización formal en Sudáfrica

The aim of this study was to investigate the stability of at-risk for mathematical learning difficulties (MLD) and the individual differences in linguistic, executive functions and background factors predicting at-risk for MLD in South African 6–7-year-old children. Longitudinal data were collected from 435 children (229 girls). Early numeracy was assessed with the ThinkMath battery, listening comprehension with a standardised task, and classroom engagement and behavioural executive functions with teacher ratings. Latent transition analysis classified children into joint trajectory patterns across two waves. Class transitions were strikingly asymmetric: 97.3% of children classified as Typical at T1 remained Typical, whereas only 58.4% of at-risk children remained at-risk and 41.6% transitioned to the Typical group. Children with persistent at-risk for MLD showed lower listening comprehension and lower classroom engagement than their stable Typical peers. Crucially, classroom engagement was the only predictor that distinguished children who transitioned out of at-risk status from those who persisted. Classroom engagement may be a candidate focus for future intervention studies for supporting children at-risk for MLD in Global South educational contexts.