Early Learning Experience and Subsequent Mathematics Achievement in South Africa: A Multilevel Analysis of TIMSS 2023

Persistent inequalities in early learning access and quality, parental engagement and socioeconomic conditions in South Africa shape children’s readiness for formal schooling through the differentiation of cognitive stimulation and early learning opportunities. Although these disparities are widely recognised as contributing to later achievement gaps, their association with mathematics performance in the primary grades remains underexplored in nationally representative data. This study investigates the association between early learning experiences and Grade 5 mathematics achievement in South Africa. The study is informed by Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory, Vygotsky’s sociocultural theory of cognitive development and Scheerens’ input–process–output framework, which conceptualises mathematics achievement as emerging from interactions across home, school and socioeconomic contexts. A quantitative secondary data analysis design was employed, using a two-level hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) approach and data from the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. The analysis drew on mathematics achievement data and contextual questionnaires capturing early childhood education participation, home numeracy practices, parental engagement and school socioeconomic composition. The results show that developmentally appropriate participation in early childhood education, longer programme duration and frequent home numeracy activities are positively associated with mathematics achievement, while very early enrolment and premature formal instructional activities are negatively associated with achievement. These results provide national evidence supporting quality early childhood education, strengthened family engagement and attention to socioeconomic inequality in efforts to improve mathematics learning outcomes.