Toward Sustainable Tourism in Borderlands: Digital Popularity and Physical Development in Xinjiang, China

Digital technologies are often regarded as a means to promote sustainable tourism, yet their effectiveness in marginalised borderlands remains unclear. This study takes Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, as a case to investigate the dynamic relationship between digital popularity and physical tourism development. The significant north–south development disparity within Xinjiang provides a comparative context for analysing the co‐evolution of sustainable tourism in borderlands. Using matched balanced panel data from 11 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2023, this study employs entropy‐weighted TOPSIS, a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, Granger predictive association tests, and panel regression models, combined with multiple robustness checks. The results show that the CCD has evolved from low‐level coordination into a spatially polarised core–periphery pattern with continuously widening regional disparities. Bidirectional temporal predictive associations are identified for the full sample and the Northern Xinjiang core group. In contrast, the Southern–Eastern Xinjiang peripheral group exhibits time‐varying association features, characterised by short‐run linkage, medium‐run effect attenuation and medium‐to‐long‐run association recovery. Panel regression results indicate that market scale acts as a universally significant driving factor for coupling coordination. Based on these findings, the study proposes spatially differentiated strategies for sustainable tourism governance, linking the analysis to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 8, 9, 10 and 11). One caveat is that the empirical analysis focuses primarily on the economic and social dimensions of tourism development; environmental sustainability is discussed mainly through qualitative interpretive analysis due to data limitations.