Threshold Analysis of the Economic Viability of Nuclear-Powered Container Ships: Conventional Propulsion, Alternative-Fuel Benchmarks, and Autonomous Operation

The economic viability of nuclear-powered container ships remains uncertain owing to high capital costs and limited operating experience. This study uses recalculated cost data from a published 15,000 TEU small modular reactor (SMR) container ship case to derive four economic thresholds for capital expenditure, insurance, carbon pricing, and discount rates over a 25-year horizon. Under the published freight-revenue assumptions, the Best scenario recovers its capital premium in 11.3 years (NPV +$278.3 million), whereas the Worst scenario exceeds the assumed 25-year vessel life, with an extrapolated recovery period of 36.5 years (NPV −$183.8 million). Nuclear propulsion retains an operating-cost advantage without carbon pricing, although this does not guarantee positive full-horizon NPV. A separate maritime autonomous surface ship (MASS) analysis identifies a 62.5% nuclear crew-cost reduction as the cash-flow-neutral threshold when the conventional comparator eliminates its crew costs. A published methanol case shows no cost recovery in 5000 Monte Carlo draws, but differing study assumptions preclude direct technology ranking. The nuclear results depend on the source’s reported freight revenues, which cannot be independently reconstructed from its disclosed operating inputs. These findings identify conditional investment boundaries relevant to sustainable shipping.