Regional consumption resilience during Covid‐19 pandemic in China: Measurement and determinants

Consumption is important for economic recovery after epidemics, but it is unclear how resilient consumption markets are when hit by epidemics. Using quarterly provincial consumption data from China between 2005 and 2025 and a regime‐switching VAR framework, this study measures regional consumption resilience and examines its recovery dynamics, spatial patterns, and macroeconomic consequences under the Covid‐19 shock. Four findings emerge. First, pandemic‐induced consumption deviations persisted for 2–3 years, reflecting medium‐term structural effects rather than transitory fluctuations. Second, resilience displays a distinct spatial heterogeneity: eastern regions show polarization, western regions exhibit high but uneven scores, and central regions remain stable. It shows that resilience depends on industrial diversification and domestic‐demand orientation, not merely economic development level. Third, disposable income strengthens resilience, while high trade openness and high social security shares weaken it. Fourth, simultaneous equations estimates reveal that a one percentage point gain in consumption resilience raises economic resilience by approximately 4.8 percentage points, confirming significant macroeconomic multiplier effects.