Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Hydrological Extremes, Waves and Storm Surges During the 2013–14 Winter Storms, UK

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

The 2013–14 UK winter storm series was characterised by an exceptional frequency and persistence of storm events, with impacts arising from cumulative hydro-meteorological forcing rather than the intensity of individual storms. Sustained atmospheric forcing resulted in ten fatalities, extensive flooding, coastal erosion, and damage to critical infrastructure. This study investigates how the evolution of atmospheric forcing during the 2013–14 winter influenced coastal ocean variability and impacts across the UK, using a consistent observational framework developed from a decade of additional research. A storm and flood chronology and impacts are delineated in a comprehensive review, demonstrating how repeated storm clusters prevented recovery of coastal systems and amplified impacts. An official direct damage estimate of £1300 M likely substantially underestimated the cost of the storms by neglecting indirect impacts from disruptions. Analysis disaggregates these costs by sector, highlighting damage to residential properties, businesses, highways, and rail infrastructure. The Dawlish railway line collapse and the sustained flooding of the Somerset Levels are presented. Post-storm recovery is noted to be variable, reflecting differences in local coastal processes, infrastructure resilience, and repeated storm events. A synoptic dataset comprising waves, tide gauges, wind, and precipitation is analysed with data sourced from 44 tide gauges, 52 wave buoys, and 15 weather station records. Results showed tide gauges and wave buoys exceeded recurrence thresholds of storm surge and wave height at a greater frequency than other winter seasons, demonstrating the disproportional occurrence of extreme waves. The maximum storm surge was recorded at Lowestoft during Storm Xaver at ∼2.2 m, which contributed to the extensive coastal damage on the east coast. Persistent rainfall compounded impacts, with South England and Wales receiving 200–300% of average winter precipitation. This research demonstrates how the sequencing of storms and the interaction of coastal, meteorological, and hydrological extremes generated cumulative impacts that overwhelmed natural and engineered defences. While direct attribution of the 2013–14 winter impacts to anthropogenic climate change remains indeterminate, UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) indicate wetter winters and increased flood risk, emphasising the need for integrated risk assessment, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive strategies for managing prolonged multi-hazard events.