Adaptive distribution strategies and supply chain performance in fragile economies with evidence from Coca Cola Mogadishu

Supply chain management in fragile economies remains underexplored despite increasing operations by multinational firms in environments characterized by institutional instability, weak infrastructure, and security challenges. This study examines how outsourcing, distribution centers, and warehousing influence supply chain performance using evidence from Coca-Cola Mogadishu, Somalia. Drawing upon Agency Theory, Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), the Resource-Based View (RBV), and Institutional Theory, the study explains how firms adapt distribution strategies under conditions of institutional fragility. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed using survey data collected from 144 employees across different managerial levels. The proposed model was analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings reveal that outsourcing and strategically managed distribution centers significantly enhance supply chain performance, whereas warehousing does not exert a significant effect in the study context. These results suggest that flexible coordination mechanisms and decentralized logistics capabilities provide greater resilience than asset-intensive infrastructure investments where governance systems and physical infrastructure are weak. The study extends supply chain literature by demonstrating that institutional fragility acts as an important boundary condition influencing the effectiveness of distribution strategies and explains why logistics capabilities that generate competitive advantage in stable economies may not produce similar outcomes in fragile states. The findings further provide practical guidance for firms operating in high-risk markets by highlighting the importance of outsourcing partnerships, strategically located distribution centers, and adaptive logistics configurations for improving operational resilience and supply chain performance.