Urban Mobility Crisis and Vulnerable Populations in Nigerian Cities: The Economic Implications of Transport Exclusion

Urban mobility is essential for access to employment, education, healthcare, markets and other urban opportunities; however, vulnerable populations in Nigerian cities continue to experience transport exclusion arising from affordability constraints, inadequate infrastructure, limited accessibility, unreliable services and prolonged travel delays. This study evaluates the extent of urban public transport immobility among vulnerable population groups in Nigerian frontline cities and quantifies its economic implications. A mixed-method research design was adopted, combining cross-sectional survey data from vulnerable residents with historical economic data for 2003-2022. The study covered Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, while 364 vulnerable respondents were targeted using purposive random sampling. Descriptive statistics, gap analysis and a net-output approach were employed to estimate transport exclusion and the associated value of output lost through immobility. The findings reveal substantial economic costs associated with inadequate access to urban public transport. Average immobility cost was estimated at USD0.85 per capita per hour, USD8.40 per capita per week and USD436.98 per capita annually over the study period. At the component level, school children with physical disabilities recorded the highest average weekly immobility cost (USD38.94 per capita), followed by physically disabled persons (USD28.29) and visually impaired persons (USD22.96), while cognitively disabled persons recorded the lowest (USD6.15). The aggregate annual cost of immobility across vulnerable population groups reached USD14,589.63 per capita in 2014, compared with USD3,600.86 in 2003. Over the 20-year period, the study estimates total annual immobility costs of USD189,657.84 million. The findings demonstrate that transport exclusion constitutes a measurable economic burden and underscore the need for universal-design infrastructure, targeted mobility support, accessible public transport and equity-oriented urban transport policies in Nigerian cities and planning practice.