Multifactor analysis of financial flows in the tourism industry

Subject. Financial flows in the tourism industry of the Russian Federation. Objectives. To conduct a comprehensive multifactor analysis of financial flows in tourism and to develop recommendations for improving financial planning to support managerial decision‑making. Methods. Data from the Federal State Statistics Service for 2014–2024 were used. Methods of descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis, and statistical hypothesis testing were applied. The normality of the distribution of quantitative indicators was assessed using the Shapiro–Wilk test; if deviations from normality were detected, nonparametric methods (median, quartiles) were employed. Calculations were performed in the StatTech software environment, v. 4.9.5 (RRID: SCR_023071). Results. It was found that over the period 2014–2024, the average volume of funds received from the sale of tourism products amounted to 298.17 billion rubles. At the same time, payments to non‑residents exceeded payments to residents by a factor of 2.8, indicating a persistent dependence on outbound tourism. A statistically significant high correlation between payments to residents and the number of tour operators was also identified, pointing to growing domestic tourism demand. Linear regression models were constructed, demonstrating a direct impact of tourism product sales volumes on the number of market participants. Conclusions. To ensure the sustainable development of tourism, it is necessary to unify statistical accounting, strengthen government support measures for domestic demand, develop domestic infrastructure, and integrate big data into forecasting models. The results can be used by government authorities in shaping regional tourism policy and by businesses to optimize financial planning in tourism.