Host-country media discourse and China’s economic presence in Africa

China’s economic engagement in Africa takes place in changing host-country discourse environments, yet the consequences of adverse media reporting for China’s overseas presence remain unclear. We argue that worsening media tone can signal rising operating risk and may therefore trigger adjustment across different margins of presence. Using an annual panel of 54 African countries for 2010–2023, we construct lagged media-tone shocks from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone and estimate their dynamic association with Chinese project personnel and FDI stocks. We combine Double Machine Learning with two-way fixed effects, conventional fixed-effects benchmarks, balanced-sample checks and an Afrobarometer exercise. The evidence is consistent with a selective-adjustment pattern. Negative media-tone shocks are associated with a delayed reduction in Chinese project personnel, with effects that emerge at the three- and four-year horizons. Positive shocks show no comparable expansion effect. Chinese overseas presence adjusts primarily to negative shifts in discourse through the more flexible personnel margin, while FDI stocks respond slowly and less consistently. The host country’s institutional context also influences the staffing response. The findings suggest that hostile discourse becomes especially materially consequential when it is likely to translate into operating risk.