Mathematical Modeling of Socio-Economic Processes as a Tool for Supporting Decision-Making in Public Administration

The relevance of the study is determined by the growing need of the Russian Federation public administration bodies for evidence-based tools for forecasting and assessing the consequences of policy decisions in the socio-economic sphere. The article systematizes theoretical foundations, classifies the model apparatus, analyzes the practice of mathematical modeling application in Russian public administration, and identifies key barriers to the institutionalization of modeling tools. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of six classes of mathematical models (input-output, macroeconometric, DSGE, CGE, agent-based, and simulation) in terms of their functionality for supporting public policy decisions, along with a comparative analysis of Russian and international practices. The main results show that Russia possesses a world-class scientific school in economic-mathematical modeling, yet the degree of institutionalization of modeling tools in decision-making processes is significantly lower than in OECD countries. The scientific novelty lies in applying V.M. Polterovich's institutional traps theory to the analysis of the gap between scientific potential and administrative practice in the field of modeling.