Climate change, agricultural productivity, and food security: Evidence from climate-vulnerable economies

Climate change is increasingly recognised as one of the principal threats to agricultural systems and to the food security of vulnerable populations. This article synthesises the empirical evidence on how rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme events affect agricultural productivity and the four dimensions of food security (availability, access, utilization, and stability) in climate-vulnerable economies, with particular attention to Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia. Drawing on a structured narrative review of crop-model, panel-econometric, and household-level studies, the paper identifies the main transmission channels from climate shocks to food insecurity and evaluates the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The evidence indicates that warming has already slowed agricultural productivity growth, that impacts are strongly non-linear and unevenly distributed, and that low-income economies with rain-fed agriculture, limited irrigation, and weak institutions face the largest losses. Adaptation measures such as climate-resilient crop varieties, efficient water management, crop diversification, and climate-risk insurance can offset a substantial share of projected damages, but only when supported by finance, extension services, and stable policy environments. The article concludes with policy recommendations and priorities for future research.