Adverse Childhood Experiences and Prison Misconduct: Applying the Pareto Principle to Prolific Rule Violations

The current study examines the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and misconduct, specifically testing whether ACEs are a predictor of outlier prison misconduct. With a shift towards focusing on high-risk populations in criminology, this study explores potential predictive factors associated with being part of the most prolific group of rule violators in prison. The Pareto Principle states that a small number of individuals are typically responsible for the majority of behavioral misconduct. Using official data from a Northeastern state, the current study examined whether ACEs were significant predictors of outlier prison misconduct. Results from the initial logistic regression model containing minimal control variables found ACEs to be a significant predictor of pareto group classification, though, the addition of predictors beyond age, gender, race, and ethnicity changed initial results. However, model 2 found age, prior incarceration, and risk level to be significant in predicting membership in the top 20% of misconduct producers. Although those who disclosed ACEs were not significantly more likely to be part of the pareto group, results found ACEs to be highly common amongst this prison population. Thus, awareness is only the first step in preventing the cycle of children impacted by adversity becoming justice-involved adults.