Associations of Baseline Depression and Anxiety Severity With Reliable Improvement and Recovery in Primary Care Psychological Therapy

Background: Brief psychological treatment programmes in primary care are increasingly used to address common mental disorders (CMDs), yet patient outcomes remain heterogeneous. Routine symptom measures may help identify patients who are more or less likely to achieve clinically meaningful change and may support treatment planning within stepped-care systems. This study examined associations between baseline depressive and anxiety symptom severity predicted reliable improvement and reliable recovery following brief psychological treatment in a real-world primary care programme. Methods: This secondary analysis used routinely collected data from 512 adults treated in a real-world primary care psychological intervention programme. Participants were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) before and after brief psychological treatment. Baseline demographic and clinical variables, including age, sex, number of sessions, and PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores, were examined according to reliable improvement and reliable recovery status. Logistic regression analyses examined associations between baseline variables and treatment outcomes. Results: Reliable improvement was observed in 73.6% of participants, whereas 53.3% achieved reliable recovery. Higher baseline anxiety severity was associated with reliable improvement (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.23), whereas lower depressive severity predicted reliable recovery (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88–0.96). Fewer treatment sessions were associated with both reliable improvement and reliable recovery. Age and sex were not significantly associated with outcomes. Conclusions: Baseline anxiety and depressive symptom severity may be relevant for understanding variability in clinically meaningful outcomes following brief psychological interventions in primary care. Patients presenting with greater depressive symptom burden may benefit from closer monitoring and more intensive or extended treatment pathways within stepped-care models.