Greenfield Development of Canal-Based Small Hydropower in Uzbekistan: Site Screening, PPP Risk Allocation and Climate Resilience through the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Uzbekistan is seeking to expand hydropower while modernizing an irrigation system that supports rural livelihoods and dominates national water use. Existing canals create a distinctive greenfield opportunity: small plants can add distributed renewable generation with limited new inundation, but their output remains subordinate to irrigation schedules, water rights and climate uncertainty. This paper develops an integrated framework for converting a large site list into an investable portfolio. It combines policy and project-document review with a two-stage multi-criteria model, hydrological stress testing and normative public-private partnership risk allocation. Stage 1 applies fatal-flaw gates for water access, irrigation non-impairment, grid and land feasibility, and environmental-social eligibility. Stage 2 ranks eligible sites by water reliability, energy yield, irrigation compatibility, cost, connection, impact and sponsor readiness. An illustration shows why a high-head location can rank below a more water-compatible site. The financing design links concessional wholesale funding and local banks to project companies, standardized contracts and verified operating data. Climate parameters remain scenarios: the severe case tests a 30–40 percent water-availability decline with a 25 percent irrigation-demand increase. The paper reconciles the 8–12 GW resource range and 5.5–6 GW target range by distinguishing assessment boundaries, technical potential, program staging and date. The central finding is that canal hydropower should be developed as a governed portfolio of water-compatible infrastructure. Transparent screening, irrigation-first operating rules and efficient risk assignment can reduce development attrition and improve resilience.