Mechanism and Policy Pathways of the Digital Economy Empowering New Productivity in Agriculture

The digital economy has become a key driver of agricultural transformation and upgrading, as well as the cultivation of new agricultural productive forces. However, the mechanisms of action and regional differences of this process remain insufficiently understood. Drawing on the theories of technology acceptance and diffusion and resource allocation, and using panel data from 283 prefecture-level cities between 2011 and 2022, an index of new agricultural productive capacity was constructed. The impact of the digital economy on new agricultural productive capacity, the underlying mechanisms, and the effects of relevant policies were analyzed systematically. Results show that the digital economy significantly promotes the development of new agricultural productive capacity, and this conclusion remains robust across multiple tests. Further analysis indicates that the enabling role of the digital economy is more pronounced in grain-producing regions, regions with balanced production and sales, areas with high digital technology penetration, and national big data comprehensive pilot zones, while its impact is weaker in major consumption regions and areas with lower technological levels. Moreover, industrial upgrading effects, factor allocation effects, and innovation-driven effects act as key pathways through which the digital economy enhances new agricultural productivity. Government-effective investment and rural human capital are found to exert significant positive moderating effects on this enabling role. In addition, the national e-commerce demonstration city pilot policy and rural e-commerce significantly strengthen the development of new agricultural productivity. This study reveals the mechanisms and context-dependent characteristics of how the digital economy enables agricultural development, enriches the theoretical research on agricultural digital transformation, and provides empirical evidence and policy insights for advancing agricultural digitalization and rural revitalization tailored to local conditions.