Microstructure‐Controlled Stress Responses of Coal Reservoirs and Their Implications for Efficient and Risk‐Informed Coalbed Methane Development: A Case Study of the No. 3 Coal Seam in the Southern Qinshui Basin

Coalbed methane (CBM) performance in the southern Qinshui Basin varies markedly among wells despite comparable engineering conditions, indicating an important influence of low‐amplitude coal‐seam microstructures. Taking the No. 3 coal seam in the Anze area as an example, this study develops an integrated workflow for microstructure identification, geomechanical simulation, favourable‐zone prediction and well‐data comparison. Robust trend‐residual decomposition, a residual quantity‐curvature‐slope‐persistence (RES‐QS) index and an evidence‐constrained influence domain were used to identify eight microstructure types. Three‐dimensional idealized models were simulated under consistent lithologic, mechanical and far‐field stress conditions. The results reveal type‐dependent spatial patterns of maximum and minimum horizontal stress, horizontal stress difference and Mohr–Coulomb proximity. By integrating observed structural geometry with simulated response templates, gas‐storage favourability, production‐potential favourability and structural‐disturbance risk were evaluated separately. Available gas‐content, hydraulic‐fracturing and production records show preliminary directional agreement with the predicted patterns. The workflow distinguishes resource‐favourable, stimulation‐compatible and structurally disturbed areas and provides a screening‐level basis for targeted and risk‐informed CBM development; here, risk‐informed denotes explicit flagging of structural disturbance rather than calculation of calibrated failure probabilities or consequences.