Digital twin as a risk management tool in the fuel and energy sector: Mechanisms and applicability in SCO countries

Aim. To conduct a conceptual analysis of the mechanisms through which a digital twin transforms risk management processes in the fuel and energy industry, and to adapt the three-component logic of its application examined in scholarly sources to the conditions of multilateral energy interaction among the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Objectives. To examine the long-term dynamics of energy production and consumption in SCO countries (within the fuel and energy sector, primarily oil and gas); to identify the key risks of cross-border energy infrastructure; to adapt the three-component model of digital twin application (known from scholarly sources for individual facilities) to the conditions of SCO cross-border infrastructure. Methods. The research is designed as a conceptual article involving logical generalization and structuring of theoretical provisions, based on analysis and synthesis of scholarly sources on digital twins, industrial risk management, and regional energy cooperation. To systematize the functions of the digital twin presented in scholarly sources and to adapt the three-component logic of its application to the cross-border context, a logical-structural method is used, allowing these functions to be ordered according to their increasing analytical complexity. The theoretical basis of the work includes normal accident theory and resilience engineering concepts, which help conceptualize the digital twin as a tool for systemic transformation of organizational risk management practices rather than as an isolated technological solution. Results. Based on a synthesis of existing approaches, a three-component structure of digital twin application — namely “visualization — simulation modeling — adaptive closed loop” — is systematized and adapted to the cross-border context. The specific conditions of such adaptation are identified: intersystem compatibility, coordination of independent operators, and heterogeneity of regulatory regimes. An analysis of the scenarios of the Central Asia–China cross-border gas pipeline and joint management of reserve capacities has shown the theoretical applicability of the adapted structure for threat detection, crisis simulation, and response coordination, provided that data exchange protocols are unified and cybersecurity requirements are met. Conclusions. The digital twin is not merely another monitoring tool. It represents a shift in approach: from passive reaction to proactive anticipation, from fragmented data to a holistic picture, and from rigid instructions to self-learning. In the context of multilateral energy cooperation within the SCO, the model under consideration demonstrates the theoretical potential for substantially improving the coordination of risk management for cross-border infrastructure.