Association of coffee and tea consumption with the risk of atrial fibrillation: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

Q: What are the key findings of this study?

Coffee intake of 2–3 cups/day was associated with an 11% lower risk of incident atrial fibrillation (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86–0.92), while tea intake of 2–3 cups/day showed a 5% lower risk (HR 0.95).

Q: What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Cohort. Population: Atrial fibrillation (n=495269). Intervention: Coffee and tea consumption (specifically 2-3 cups of coffee per day) vs. Non-drinkers (0 cups/day). Primary outcome: Incident atrial fibrillation (ICD-10 code I48) (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, p=<0.001).

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

Coffee consumption is inversely associated with the risk of incident atrial fibrillation across multiple intake levels, whereas tea intake is associated with a modestly lower risk only at 2–3 cups per day. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Q: What question did this study set out to answer?

Investigate the relationship between daily coffee and tea consumption and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation.

Rui Liang; Zhaofeng Zhang; Yacong Bo; Jing Guo

doi:10.29219/fnr.v70.14612

October 31, 2026Food & Nutrition ResearchOpen Access

Association of coffee and tea consumption with the risk of atrial fibrillation: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

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Key result

Moderate coffee intake of 2–3 cups daily is linked to ~11% lower risk of incident AF.

HR 0.89
95% CI 0.86-0.92
P<0.001
n=495,269

Why the study?

Preventing AF is essential due to its high prevalence and heavy healthcare burden, yet existing findings on the relationship between coffee and tea consumption and AF risk are controversial.

Does habitual consumption of coffee and tea reduce the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and older adults without baseline atrial fibrillation?

Key Points

Investigate the relationship between daily coffee and tea consumption and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation.
Prospective cohort study analyzing 495,269 participants without atrial fibrillation at baseline from the UK Biobank.
Self-reported daily coffee and tea intake was categorized into 0, 0.5–1, 2–3, and ≥ 4 cups/day.
Cox proportional hazards regression models and restricted cubic splines evaluated incident atrial fibrillation risks and non-linear dose–response relationships adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle confounders.
Over a median follow-up of 13.04 ± 2.26 years, 37,261 participants developed atrial fibrillation, demonstrating non-linear associations for both beverages (P for non-linear < 0.001).
Compared with non-drinkers, coffee consumption was associated with a 7% lower risk for 0.5–1 cups/day, an 11% lower risk for 2–3 cups/day, and a 9% lower risk for ≥ 4 cups/day.
For tea, only consumption of 2–3 cups per day was associated with a lower risk of atrial fibrillation (5% reduction), with no statistically significant associations observed for other intake categories.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=495,269)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Does habitual consumption of coffee and tea reduce the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and older adults without baseline atrial fibrillation?

P

Population

495,269 middle-aged and older UK Biobank adults (mean age 57.0 years, 54.6% female) free of baseline atrial fibrillation, followed for a median of 13.04 years.

E

Exposure

Self-reported habitual coffee consumption (including decaffeinated coffee) and tea consumption (including black and green tea), categorized into 0.5-1, 2-3, and ≥4 cups per day.

C

Comparator

Non-drinkers of coffee (0 cups/day, n=109,936) and non-drinkers of tea (0 cups/day, n=72,809) as respective reference control groups.

O

Outcome

Incident atrial fibrillation (ICD-10 code I48), diagnosed via self-report at any assessment center, inpatient hospital data, primary care, or death record data over a median follow-up of 13.04 ± 2.26 years.hard clinical

Main Result

Hazard Ratio: 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.92)

p-value: p=<0.001

In a large UK prospective cohort, daily coffee consumption across all categories and moderate tea consumption (2-3 cups/day) were associated with a modestly lower risk of incident atrial fibrillation.

Limitations

Coffee and tea consumption was self-reported only once at baseline, which may lead to recall bias and inability to capture changes in consumption patterns over follow-up
Cup size, brewing method, beverage strength, and actual caffeine dose were not standardized or directly measured
Coffee intake included decaffeinated coffee, reflecting overall beverage consumption rather than caffeine intake alone
Residual confounding may persist as coffee and tea were analyzed in separate models without mutual adjustment, alongside potential unmeasured genetic or environmental factors
Inability to distinguish between different subtypes of coffee and tea
Findings from the predominantly White UK Biobank population may have limited generalizability to other ethnic groups
Observational study design precludes establishing causal inference
Coffee and tea consumption was assessed only once at baseline, not capturing changes over follow-up
Intake was based on self-reported data, subject to recall bias and reporting error
Cup size, brewing method, beverage strength, and preparation practices were not standardized, and caffeine dose was not directly measured (included decaffeinated coffee)
Residual confounding may exist as coffee and tea were analyzed in separate models without mutual adjustment
Generalizability is limited mainly to the UK population
Observational design precludes causal inference

Implication

May support further AF prevention research on moderate coffee/tea; extends conflicting meta-analyses but should not yet change practice.

Abstract

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a high prevalence and a heavy healthcare burden, making prevention of AF essential. Coffee and tea are popular beverages around the world, and they may have a relationship with AF, but the results are controversial. This study aimed to investigate the relationship of coffee and tea intake with the risk of AF. Methods: This study included 495,269 participants without AF at baseline from the UK Biobank. Coffee and tea intake was self-reported (0, 0.5–1, 2–3, ≥ 4 cups/day). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: During a median follow-up of 13.04 ± 2.26 years, 37,261 participants developed AF. The associations of coffee and tea with AF were non-linear (P for non-linear < 0.001). Compared with non-drinkers, drinking 0.5–1, 2–3, and ≥ 4 cups of coffee per day was associated with a protective effect against AF, corresponding to a 7, 11, and 9% lower risk, respectively. For tea, only consumption of 2–3 cups per day was associated with a modestly lower risk of AF, whereas no significant associations were observed for other intake categories. Conclusions: We found that coffee intake was inversely associated with incident AF across multiple intake categories, whereas for tea, a modest inverse association was observed only at 2–3 cups per day, with no statistically significant associations for other intake categories. Further studies are warranted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential mechanism

Discussion

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Cite This Study

Liang et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Atrial fibrillation (n=495,269). Coffee and tea consumption (specifically 2-3 cups of coffee per day) vs. Non-drinkers (0 cups/day) was evaluated on Incident atrial fibrillation (ICD-10 code I48) (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, p=<0.001). Coffee intake of 2–3 cups/day was associated with an 11% lower risk of incident atrial fibrillation (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86–0.92), while tea intake of 2–3 cups/day showed a 5% lower risk (HR 0.95).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6ae7d421edffb496294104cb https://doi.org/10.29219/fnr.v70.14612

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Association of coffee and tea consumption with the risk of atrial fibrillation: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Association of coffee and tea consumption with the risk of atrial fibrillation: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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