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In October 2026, US President Donald Trump blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for the rising price of diesel in the United States. Using event study methodologies and parametric and non-parametric testing, we examine this thesis. Our results show that Ukrainian strikes had a minor negative effect on oil prices across three different fuel oils. On the other hand, geopolitical events connected with the US war on Iran, and in particular Iranian strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, were highly significantly correlated with much higher prices.
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Hartwell et al. (2026) studied this question.
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