From energy model outputs to policy uptake: political economy-informed energy system modelling in developing countries

Energy system modelling informs energy planning and climate policy, yet its influence on decisions in developing countries remains uneven. Technically sound model outputs often do not translate into policy uptake because of institutional constraints, political dynamics and limited stakeholder ownership. Existing work either offers conceptual guidance or examines the model-policy interface qualitatively, and few studies assess systematically how political economy considerations are operationalised within models or whether they strengthen policy influence. This paper addresses that gap through a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 171 applied energy system modelling studies in low- and middle-income countries, with particular attention to sub-Saharan Africa. The review examines at which stages of the modelling workflow political economy considerations enter, the mechanisms used to operationalise them, how stakeholder engagement and institutional dynamics are handled, and what evidence links such modelling to policy uptake. It also considers how open-source tools such as OSeMOSYS, CLEWs and OnSSET shape transparency and accessibility. Political economy content appears in 62 of 171 studies (36.3%), mostly through scenario narratives, stakeholder engagement, and exogenous constraints, while applied practice lacks endogenous representation. Stakeholder engagement is reported in very few studies. The studies that report policy influence share institutional anchoring, decision timing, iterative engagement and local capacity. A protocol for context-sensitive and policy-relevant modelling is proposed.