Integrated Assessment of Green Hydrogen Readiness in Water-Constrained Regions

Green hydrogen is widely regarded as a cornerstone of global decarbonization strategies. However, the rapid expansion of large-scale electrolysis projects in arid and semi-arid regions raises critical sustainability concerns that extend beyond techno-economic feasibility and carbon metrics. In particular, water stress and environmental risks associated with desalination and brine discharge remain insufficiently integrated into hydrogen readiness assessments. This study proposes a Water–Energy Green Hydrogen Readiness (WE–GH) framework integrating 37 indicators across water security and stress, renewable-energy readiness, and governance and infrastructure capacity dimensions to evaluate hydrogen-development potential in 9 selected countries from Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Multivariate analysis identifies four exploratory country profiles: technology-compensated coastal systems, renewable-driven transitional systems, resource-based intermediate systems, and constraint-limited governance systems, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia leading due to strong infrastructure and technological capabilities, albeit with persistent dependence on desalination and exposure to water stress. South Africa and Morocco form a second tier driven by renewable energy potential but constrained by governance, water stress and infrastructure limitations. Kazakhstan, Namibia, and Egypt exhibit moderate readiness with imbalanced system characteristics, while Algeria and Nigeria are limited by structural governance deficiencies. The local perturbation analysis shows that WE–GH scores are more responsive to changes in the energy pillar than to comparable changes in water conditions, while simultaneous perturbations of both pillars produce the largest score shifts. The findings highlight that successful green hydrogen development requires integrated strategies addressing water management, institutional capacity, and energy system transformation, rather than relying on technological advancement alone. The proposed WE–GH framework may support policymakers and investors in identifying more resilient and sustainable hydrogen-development pathways under increasing global water stress.