Transformation of the operational center of emergency situations of public health of Kazakhstan

Relevance. Modern public health systems are facing an increasing number of complex threats, including infectious diseases, climate-related hazards, environmental exposures, chemical incidents and technological emergencies. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the limitations of predominantly reactive response mechanisms and emphasized the need for systems based on early warning, risk assessment, forecasting and evidence-based decision-making. The purpose of the study: was to develop a conceptual model for transforming the Public Health Emergency Operations Centre of the Republic of Kazakhstan into an integrated analytical and coordination mechanism for managing public health risks. Materials and methods. The study included an analysis of Kazakhstan’s regulatory framework, international WHO approaches to Public Health Emergency Operations Centres, and an assessment of the current functional capacity of the national emergency operations system. Comparative analysis, gap analysis, SWOT analysis, expert assessment and conceptual modelling were applied. Results. The analysis demonstrated that the existing system provides essential emergency monitoring and response functions but faces several structural limitations, including fragmented data sources, insufficient digital integration, lack of standardized risk assessment procedures and limited multidisciplinary workforce capacity. Based on these findings, the authors developed the Integrated Risk-Oriented Public Health Emergency Operations Model. The proposed model integrates five core components: an early warning system, a risk assessment unit, forecasting and scenario modelling, a multi-level response mechanism (L0-L3), and a digital decision-support platform. A key innovation of the model is the introduction of the “3–8–24-hour risk assessment algorithm”, designed to accelerate threat evaluation and decision-making. Conclusion. Implementation of the IMR framework may strengthen Kazakhstan’s public health emergency preparedness by improving early detection, predictive capacity, intersectoral coordination and evidence-based decision-making. The proposed model provides a conceptual foundation for transforming the national emergency operations center into a proactive risk governance platform aligned with global health security principles.