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A model of how groups keep secrets, how the secrets come out, and who gets punished. Part I covers documented cases, mostly American, from 1776 to now: Watergate, COINTELPRO, the Manhattan Project, Iran-Contra, the tobacco industry, Enron and Challenger. Part II gives the model's math and a simulation that reproduces from a seed. This version reports one simulation experiment. Later versions add the rest.
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Lance Pollard (2026) studied this question.
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