Impact of Hypertension on Disability Prevalence and Healthcare Cost Projections Among Thai Older Adults by 2040

Q: What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Observational. Population: Hypertension and disability. Intervention: Hypertension vs. Older adults without hypertension. Primary outcome: Projected prevalence of disability and annual disability-related healthcare expenditures through 2040.

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

The number of community-dwelling Thai older adults with hypertension and disability is projected to rise from 1.13 million in 2022 to 1.91 million by 2040, driving annual healthcare costs from USD 70.72 million to USD 152.80 million. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Utoomporn Wongsin; Tuoyu Chen; Arnat Wannasri; Thu Win Kyaw

doi:10.24083/apjhm.v21i2.5511

November 2, 2026Asia Pacific Journal of Health ManagementOpen Access

Impact of Hypertension on Disability Prevalence and Healthcare Cost Projections Among Thai Older Adults by 2040

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Share

Key result

Hypertension-related disability in older Thai adults is projected to increase ~69% by 2040.

Why the study?

Hypertension is linked to disability in older adults, creating a need to estimate disability prevalence and project future healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand through 2040.

Key Points

To project disability prevalence and future healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults aged 60 years or older with hypertension in Thailand from 2022 to 2040.
Analyzed data from the Health, Aging, and Retirement in Thailand (HART) survey, official government records, and published literature.
Applied regression models to estimate disability prevalence and micro-costing methods combined with the consumer price index to forecast future healthcare expenditures.
Older adults with hypertension and disability are projected to increase from 1.13 million in 2022 to 1.91 million by 2040, with disability prevalence ranging from 22% to 33% across age groups.
Disability-related healthcare expenditures for community-dwelling older adults with hypertension are projected to rise from USD 70.72 million in 2022 to USD 152.80 million by 2040.
By 2040, the 70–79 age group is projected to represent the highest burden, reaching more than 0.75 million individuals with hypertension and disability.

Study Design

Type

Observational

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

P

Population

Community-dwelling Thai older adults aged 60 years or older with hypertension, with disability prevalence and healthcare expenditures projected from 2022 to 2040 using national survey and UN population data.

O

Outcome

Projected prevalence of disability (defined as having difficulty in performing at least one Activity of Daily Living item) and projected disability-related outpatient healthcare expenditures among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension from 2022 to 2040.

This health economic modeling study projects that both the number of community-dwelling older adults with hypertension and disability and their associated outpatient healthcare costs in Thailand will increase substantially by 2040, highlighting the urgent need for targeted disability prevention and hypertension management programs.

Limitations

Assumed constant hypertension and disability incidence and prevalence rates over time, which may underestimate future burden.
No breakdown by disability severity was possible (defined as difficulty in at least one ADL item).
Projected costs included only outpatient hypertension-related healthcare services from a provider perspective, excluding inpatient care, rehabilitation, assistive devices, home care, long-term care, informal care, and productivity losses.
Assumed constant hypertension incidence and constant disability prevalence and incidence rates over time, which may underestimate future burden.
No breakdown by disability severity was possible.
Projected costs included only outpatient hypertension-related healthcare services from the provider perspective and excluded inpatient care, rehabilitation, assistive devices, home care, long-term care, informal care, and productivity losses.
Disability was defined solely as having difficulty in at least one activity of daily living (ADL).

Ask about this paper

Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.

Implication

May inform Thai healthcare planning for aging hypertensives; leaves open prospective validation of intervention effects on disability costs.

Abstract

Background: Disability poses significant challenges for individuals, families, and societies, leading to diminished quality of life. Hypertension is notably linked to disability among older adults. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of disability and future healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand from 2022 to 2040. Method: Data were obtained from the Health, Aging, and Retirement in Thailand (HART) survey, official government data, and published papers. The regression model was used to estimate the prevalence of disability among older adults. The micro-costing method was used to obtain the actual hospital service costs incurred for hypertensive patients. Then, the service costs of older adults with hypertension and the consumer price index were used to project future healthcare expenses. Results: Thailand’s population of older adults aged 60 years or older is projected to increase from 15.77 million in 2022 to 24.04 million in 2040. Approximately 46% of those had hypertension. The prevalence of disability among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand ranged from 22-33%, and the incidence ranged from 11-18% by age group. There are an estimated 1.13 million older adults with hypertension and disability in 2022, and this number is forecasted to increase to 1.91 million by 2040. Disability-related healthcare expenditures among community-dwelling older adults with hypertension in Thailand are estimated to be USD 70.72 million in 2022 and are forecasted to reach USD 152.80 million by 2040. Conclusions: This study sheds light on the anticipated health burden faced by community-dwelling older adults with hypertension and disability, along with the associated healthcare costs in Thailand. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating service provision strategies and budgetary planning at the national level.

Discussion

No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.

Cite This Study

Wongsin et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Hypertension and disability. Hypertension vs. Older adults without hypertension was evaluated on Projected prevalence of disability and annual disability-related healthcare expenditures through 2040. Hypertension with disability in Thai older adults is projected to grow from 1.13M to 1.91M by 2040, raising annual healthcare costs from USD 70.72M to USD 152.80M.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aea772189a8acbed9c87a91 https://doi.org/10.24083/apjhm.v21i2.5511

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Share

Impact of Hypertension on Disability Prevalence and Healthcare Cost Projections Among Thai Older Adults by 2040

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Limitations

Ask about this paper

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Impact of Hypertension on Disability Prevalence and Healthcare Cost Projections Among Thai Older Adults by 2040

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Limitations

Ask about this paper

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Keep reading

Keep reading