Aquaculture as an engine of economic growth: Evidence from second-generation panel and causality estimations on global aquaculture dynamics

This study investigates the impact of aquaculture production on economic growth across the top twenty aquaculture-producing countries for the 2001–2024 period. Accounting for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, the study employs second-generation CIPS panel unit root tests, panel VAR Granger causality analysis, and fixed-effects estimation with Driscoll–Kraay robust standard errors. A dynamic panel specification is also employed to assess the robustness of the findings. A dynamic panel specification is also applied for robustness. The empirical findings confirm a strong Granger causality running from aquaculture to economic growth. Panel estimates indicate that a 1% increase in aquaculture output is associated with about 0.14% higher per-capita GDP, while CPI is also positively and significantly associated with GDP. These associations remain robust in the dynamic specification. Overall, the findings highlight aquaculture's vital macroeconomic role and emphasize the need to integrate circular economy principles into sustainable growth strategies.