The natural history of coronary heart disease: prognostic factors after recovery from myocardial infarction in 2789 men. The 5-year findings of the coronary drug project.

SUMMARY The natural history of coronary heart disease was studied in 2789 men who had sustained at least one myocardial infarction (MI) at least 3 months previously and who were in New York Heart Association functional class I or II. All were enrolled in the Coronary Drug Project (CDP) between 1966 and 1969 and were allocated to receive placebo medication during a 5-year follow-up period. Forty characteris-tics determined at entry were selected for univariate and multivariate analysis, with four end points: death from all causes, sudden cardiovascular death, coronary death, and coronary death or definite nonfatal myocardial infarction. The baseline characteristics included demographic, historical, clinical, biochemical and electrocardiographic data. The mean age at the time of enrollment was 52.4 years, and the median interval since the last myocardial infarction was 1.98 years. During 5 years of follow-up, 591 men (21.2%) died from all causes. In general, the baseline characteristics that were statistically more related to subsequent mortality were those that reflected the amount of myocardial damage and loss of ventricular function. The 10 baseline variables that were most strongly related to death from all causes were ST-segment depression on the resting ECG, use of diuretics, New York Heart Association functional class, ventricular conduction defects, heart rate, cardiomegaly on chest x-ray, number of myocardial infarctions, history of