From Riyadh to Makkah: The evolution of trilateral security cooperation among Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan

Between September 2025 and August 2026, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan moved from bilateral to trilateral defense commitments, culminating in the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, which declares an attack on any signatory an attack on all three. Situated within Balance of Threat theory and alliance-politics literature on commitment and abandonment, this article argues that the pact is threat-driven without being threat-convergent. Each signatory aligns against a different primary adversary within a single instrument. The article examines drivers, including eroding confidence in the United States, and assesses the pact’s central ambiguity: whether Pakistan’s nuclear posture extends to its partners, establishing only strategic ambiguity rather than extended deterrence.