Coalition formation and the winner–loser gap inside parties

Political outcomes generate systematic differences between winners and losers, yet little is known about how such dynamics unfold within parties following coalition decisions. This study applies the winner–loser gap framework to coalition formation by examining how local party elites react to winning or losing national coalition choices. The study focuses on local elites, who play a key role as intermediaries between national leadership and grassroots members in party organizations. We conceptualize winning and losing as the congruence or incongruence between elites’ coalition preferences and the party’s eventual decision. Using a preregistered survey experiment among local representatives of Finland’s largest center-right party, we show that losing a coalition decision reduces satisfaction with the party and with membership, lowers leadership support, weakens acceptance of the decision, and increases intentions to disengage. These effects appear consistently across coalition scenarios, indicating that they are driven by the experience of political loss rather than specific coalition outcomes. We further show that the magnitude of winner–loser differences varies systematically across ideological orientations along a secondary ideological dimension. These findings suggest that ideological diversity and intra-party defeat are linked to consequential differences in party cohesion, elite behavior, and organizational legitimacy in contemporary coalition politics.