How the coalition formation process and coalition preferences shape satisfaction with democracy

The winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy is one of the most robust findings in political science. This relationship is particularly clear in two-party systems where only one party ends up in power. Yet in the increasingly complex multi-party systems of Europe, a lot of different coalitions are often possible, meaning that a ‘winning’ voter may not like the government coalition that the party they voted for ends up in. We argue that changes in satisfaction with democracy will be influenced by voters’ preferences for the government coalition that is formed. Relying on panel data from two German and two Austrian Federal Elections, we find that attitudes towards the coalition that is formed have a clear effect on satisfaction with democracy. We show that this effect is only present after the coalition is formed and not in post-electoral surveys held before that point. The results have important implications for understanding the mechanisms driving the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy.