Airport system development and urban development: Scenario analysis in the Tokyo metropolitan area

• This study analyzed the effects of airport system development on urban development. • Land-use and transportation interaction model was employed to simulate the effects. • Case study was performed in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area under four scenarios. • The regions benefit most in a development strategy proposed by the government. • Three-airport system has strong agglomeration effects on employment in airport area. This study examines the impact of airport system development on urban dynamics, using Tokyo as a case study. It evaluates how three distinct types of airport development affect regional employment and economic performance through a land-use and transportation interaction (LUTI) model. Four scenarios are analyzed: (1) a feasible development plan proposed by the government, (2) expansion of the existing city airport, (3) establishment of a three-airport system, and (4) relocation of the existing city airport. The LUTI model, built on statistical data from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA), integrates land-use and transportation components. The land-use model includes residential and business location choice models, incorporating the assumption of land supply controlled by absentee landlords. The transportation model encompasses trip generation/attraction, trip distribution, modal choice, and railway route choice. Existing modal and railway route choice models developed in previous TMA studies are integrated into the framework. Simulation results reveal that the three-airport system scenario yields the highest economic benefits for regional firms, followed by the expansion of the existing city airport. However, the feasible development scenario achieves the highest cost–benefit ratio, with the city airport expansion ranking second. The analysis also indicates that while the three-airport system promotes strong agglomeration effects in airport-adjacent areas, it may negatively affect employment in suburban regions.