China’s elite championship output during and after the COVID-19 disruption: competition opportunities and Olympic/Paralympic cycle structure, 2013–2025

Annual world-champion counts indicate elite sporting output, but they are constrained by the international competition calendar. This study examined China’s non-disabled and para championship output from 2013 to 2025 in relation to competition availability and Olympic/Paralympic cycle structure. Official annual data on world-champion counts and world-record items were combined with an 11-series selected World Championship calendar and official cancellation, postponement, and event-opportunity records. Primary analyses described annual output and ratios relative to group-specific 2013–2019 means. A calendar-sensitivity proxy was calculated for 2021–2025, when selected-core availability was non-zero. Mean pre-pandemic output was 115.43 championships for non-disabled athletes and 231.43 for para athletes. In 2020, output ratios fell to 0.035 and 0.104, while selected-core calendar availability fell to 0. In 2021, availability was 0.636 and the sensitivity proxies were 0.912 and 0.747. Mean output ratios across 2023–2025 were 1.458 and 1.070, respectively; the 2025 ratios were 1.265 and 0.773. World-record items fell from 16 in 2019 to 1 in 2020 and reached 17 in 2025. These findings describe substantial disruption and heterogeneous subsequent output patterns but do not isolate a causal COVID-19 effect or directly measure organizational resilience. Competition opportunity and cycle position should therefore be considered when interpreting national elite-sport output.