The Error Theory of Luck: A Mathematical, Physical, and Philosophical Deconstruction

This independent research paper investigates whether luck is a real feature of the universe or a cognitive illusion. Drawing on mathematics, physics, and philosophy, it argues that probability is not a property of reality but a model of human ignorance — a way of navigating a world whose causes exceed our ability to measure them. The paper examines three domains. Mathematically, it frames probability as epistemic ignorance rather than ontological chance, using Laplace's Demon and chaos theory to show that unpredictability is a limit of knowledge, not a feature of nature. Physically, it argues that macroscopic events are either deterministic or effectively shielded from quantum indeterminacy by decoherence, leaving no room for luck at the human scale. Philosophically, it analyzes luck as a necessary narrative tool — a cognitive scaffold the mind uses to make sense of uncertainty and form moral judgments. The conclusion is that luck is not a force but an error: a useful, deeply human illusion. The paper engages with Steven Hales' error theory and extends it across disciplines, arguing that while luck is not ontologically real, it remains psychologically indispensable. We cannot live without it — even if, under rigorous examination, it does not exist.