Modeling the Risk of Batrachochytrium Salamandrivorans, an Emerging Fungal Pathogen, in Amphibians in Minnesota, Usa

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging fungal pathogen responsible for severe declines in salamander populations across Europe and that poses a significant threat to North American amphibians. Although Bsal has not yet been detected in North America, Minnesota, USA, faces a considerable risk of introduction and establishment due to the global pet trade and presence of suitable environmental conditions. This study presents a risk model for Bsal in Minnesota, integrating data on pet trade pathways, environmental suitability, and species-level host susceptibility using a multicriterion, unweighted linear combination model. Introduction risk was assessed using pet store density, and consequence risk was based on environmental temperature suitability and the richness of known susceptible species. The final risk scores encompass the potential for an introduction and the consequences if established, providing a practical tool for disease surveillance and management planning in the event of a Bsal incursion.