Perceptions of social protection, financial improvement, and financial independence: Evidence from a survey of social assistance recipients in Kazakhstan

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractSocial protection is critical in supporting vulnerable populations and promoting socioeconomic well-being. However, evidence on how recipients evaluate the adequacy of social assistance, the quality of its implementation, and its contribution to financial improvement remains limited, particularly in transition economies. This study examines how recipients of social assistance in Kazakhstan perceive institutional implementation, financial improvement, and the capacity of social assistance to support financial independence. The empirical analysis is based on a structured survey conducted in Kazakhstan in March 2026 among 202 respondents, of whom 167 reported receiving social assistance and constituted the main analytical sample. Descriptive statistics, Spearman correlation analysis, ordered logistic regression, mediation analysis, average marginal effects, and binary logistic robustness checks were employed to examine associations between institutional and socioeconomic factors. Only 14.5% of recipients reported financial improvement lasting more than one year, while 88.4% of valid respondents supported combining social assistance with employment programs. Among the variables included in the estimated models, statistically significant associations were observed primarily for institutional characteristics. Stratified 10-fold cross-validation yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.756 and a classification accuracy of 71.5%. Overall, the findings suggest that institutional implementation and the perceived adequacy of social assistance are associated with more favorable evaluations of financial well-being and financial independence among recipients.